Turkey will then have the responsibility of separating the "moderate” opposition from the extremist elements, including Jabhat Nusra. They form a lethal component of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham alliance of hardline groups, mainly located in the town of Jisr al-Shughour, southwest of Idlib. It had initially revealed a rare public divide between Mr Putin and his defence establishment: Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said that Israel bore "full responsibility” for the attack, while Mr Putin attempted to defuse the situation by saying it was caused by a "chain of tragic chance events”. They are expected to fight hard against the government assault. Those who retain their weapons and remain in the city could be subjected to targeted attacks. Thus, following Sochi, Mr Erdogan has agreed to set up a 15-20 km buffer zone at Idlib by October 15 that will separate government and rebel forces and will be jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish military units. 

Again, Syrian defence units would now be able to electronically jam onboard radar communications and satellite navigation systems. Despite Israeli protestations, Russia asserted that an Israeli plane had deliberately "pushed” the Russian aircraft into the line of fire.For Turkey, separating the moderates from the extremists will be difficult. Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: AP) On September 17, two developments impacted on Russia’s interests in Syria.These two developments have further complicated the already convoluted Syrian scenario. Turkey is also concerned that the battle will lead to thousands of refugees swarming across the Turkish border for safety.A week after the attack, Russia revealed its iron hand. Now, though, Hanging vacuum storage bag Israel seems anxious to mend ties with Russia — its earlier aggressive public posturing has become more muted. Israel has also benefited from the relationship since Russia alone seems capable of restraining Iranian military activity in Syria.

However, he recognises the high stakes for President Erdogan: Turkey supports a "moderate” opposition group, the National Liberation Front (NLF), made up of Arab and Turkoman fighters, as a counter-weight to the Syrian Kurds, and wishes to ensure they are not annihilated in a full-scale government assault on Idlib.Two, a few hours after the Sochi agreement, during an Israeli air attack near Latakia, Syrian retaliatory anti-aircraft fire brought down a Russian military plane, killing 15 Russian military personnel on board.An important area of uncertainty is the fate of some 3,000 foreign militant fighters at Idlib, mainly from Uzbekistan, Chechnya and some Uighurs from China.. While anxious to avoid a bloodbath in that city with three million people, many of them refugees from other cities, he sees Idlib overrun by 50,000-90,000 militants, including a few thousand elements of the Al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Nusra, and is sceptical about a peaceful outcome. While some had earlier joined the Islamic State, most of them have remained with Jabhat Nusra. Peace in Syria remains elusive. He recalled the various ways in which Russia had been accommodating Israel’s interests in Syria, most recently by ensuring that Iranian forces were kept 140 km from the Israeli border at Golan Heights during operations in southeast Syria.The bringing down of the Russian aircraft has created fresh uncertainties in the complex Syrian scenario. Militants will have the option of joining the "moderate” opposition, the NLF, or leave Idlib. It is also feared that some extremists could sneak into Turkey and carry out terrorist operations.

Most regional commentators believe that the Turkish peace initiative will fail and military operations, backed by Russian air support, could even begin from mid-October. This process should end by December 10. There are even suggestions that the new military facilities in Syria will remain under Russian control.Mr Putin backed Mr Erdogan’s interests at Sochi to retain Turkey, a Nato member but long estranged from the United States, as a regional ally and as a partner, with Iran, in the Russia-led Astana peace process in Syria. On September 24, its defence spokesperson accused Israel of "criminal negligence” and "ungratefulness”.By facilitating the attack on the Russian aircraft, Israel had perhaps wished to convey to Moscow that it retained the right to safeguard its security interests despite its ties with Russia.

The bringing down of the Russian aircraft has created fresh uncertainties in the complex Syrian scenario.While this will restrict Israeli attacks in Syria, it is likely that Russia and Israel will soon be drawn together by their shared interests.Russia and Israel have worked closely in Syria over the last three years, with Russia quietly accepting at least 200 Israeli air attacks in the last 18 months. The Russian military, however, firmly rejected a presentation by the Israeli air chief in Moscow blaming Syria for the loss, and saying that its aircraft had returned home when the Russian aircraft was hit.The Sochi agreement is a major concession by President Putin. Mr Putin has said that by end-December, the Aleppo-Latakia and Aleppo-Hama highways, passing through Idlib, will become functional.Meanwhile, at Idlib, we can expect military action soon after Turkey’s President Erdogan has taken his "moderate” rebels to safety, when jihadis will engage in their final battle

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